Two chains with 5000 burn-in and 10,000 per chain. No thinning. bgr diagnostic reasonable probably should up burn-in to 7500. Used Openbugs 2.2. without dynamic compilation. MC error seems to be in the 1 to 5% of posterior mean as recommended. I have programmed in residuals but have not checked them in recent years. mean sd MC_error val2.5pc median val97.5pc start sample B.nextyear 1011.0 947.2 45.92 27.54 726.2 3629.0 5001 20000 Biomass[1] 1064.0 323.7 9.682 614.8 1004.0 1893.0 5001 20000 Biomass[2] 957.8 386.9 14.41 492.5 870.1 1988.0 5001 20000 Biomass[3] 770.0 397.5 16.32 324.2 669.7 1829.0 5001 20000 Biomass[4] 700.2 398.4 16.75 268.7 596.2 1738.0 5001 20000 Biomass[5] 915.9 511.2 20.23 340.2 788.7 2237.0 5001 20000 Biomass[6] 3112.0 729.1 24.32 1885.0 3045.0 4723.0 5001 20000 Biomass[7] 2163.0 742.8 20.37 1142.0 2024.0 3968.0 5001 20000 Biomass[8] 1662.0 529.8 13.77 862.1 1583.0 2949.0 5001 20000 Biomass[9] 1167.0 416.0 13.18 596.7 1086.0 2219.0 5001 20000 Biomass[10] 926.5 358.5 12.83 426.7 861.1 1827.0 5001 20000 Biomass[11] 807.6 336.4 13.73 374.9 737.4 1655.0 5001 20000 Biomass[12] 670.3 309.7 13.28 282.1 599.2 1443.0 5001 20000 Biomass[13] 515.5 271.7 12.1 198.8 447.9 1241.0 5001 20000 Biomass[14] 543.6 290.4 12.46 210.2 473.5 1283.0 5001 20000 Biomass[15] 711.4 369.8 15.09 286.1 621.9 1667.0 5001 20000 Biomass[16] 789.4 407.2 15.96 308.4 689.4 1833.0 5001 20000 Biomass[17] 805.0 404.5 15.1 287.9 717.6 1849.0 5001 20000 Biomass[18] 784.3 372.6 12.72 282.6 706.9 1735.0 5001 20000 Biomass[19] 1078.0 398.7 10.74 588.4 983.0 2122.0 5001 20000 Biomass[20] 2495.0 582.3 16.62 1626.0 2400.0 3893.0 5001 20000 Biomass[21] 2126.0 634.5 25.01 1273.0 1996.0 3705.0 5001 20000 Biomass[22] 1476.0 669.8 33.67 693.1 1301.0 3261.0 5001 20000 Biomass[23] 1015.0 713.1 39.01 208.2 807.9 2935.0 5001 20000 Ipred[1] 407.3 67.06 0.4728 290.2 401.6 555.6 5001 20000 Ipred[2] 323.3 53.13 0.4103 230.6 319.3 440.1 5001 20000 Ipred[3] 262.6 42.86 0.2826 188.2 259.2 358.6 5001 20000 Ipred[4] 248.6 40.78 0.2888 178.2 245.6 338.1 5001 20000 Ipred[5] 334.1 55.07 0.4445 237.6 329.7 454.6 5001 20000 Ipred[6] 1884.0 306.3 2.946 1347.0 1861.0 2545.0 5001 20000 Ipred[7] 1159.0 185.8 1.25 832.9 1144.0 1562.0 5001 20000 Ipred[8] 561.1 93.67 0.6125 400.2 553.1 767.6 5001 20000 Ipred[9] 373.4 61.13 0.4463 265.8 369.3 506.3 5001 20000 Ipred[10] 254.5 41.57 0.2905 183.0 251.0 347.0 5001 20000 Ipred[11] 258.2 42.15 0.313 186.3 254.8 349.5 5001 20000 Ipred[12] 164.2 27.16 0.1927 117.5 161.8 223.7 5001 20000 Ipred[13] 179.2 29.01 0.2124 129.1 176.8 242.2 5001 20000 Ipred[14] 182.9 30.06 0.2249 130.7 180.4 248.9 5001 20000 Ipred[15] 234.0 38.22 0.2775 168.1 231.2 317.8 5001 20000 Ipred[16] 227.0 37.13 0.2601 162.4 224.0 307.2 5001 20000 Ipred[17] 183.3 30.07 0.2119 130.6 180.9 248.0 5001 20000 Ipred[18] 180.2 29.68 0.1963 128.4 177.9 245.5 5001 20000 Ipred[19] 668.0 110.1 0.9829 478.3 658.3 910.5 5001 20000 Ipred[20] 1431.0 227.6 1.637 1031.0 1415.0 1915.0 5001 20000 Ipred[21] 978.4 160.2 1.15 699.1 965.9 1328.0 5001 20000 Ipred[22] 476.8 77.8 0.586 342.5 470.6 648.3 5001 20000 Ipred[23] 175.2 28.8 0.2647 125.2 173.0 237.9 5001 20000 K 814.6 173.4 9.015 539.4 800.5 1204.0 5001 20000 Rec[1] 76.05 72.52 1.459 14.14 55.43 262.6 5001 20000 Rec[2] 54.32 57.21 1.311 9.705 38.08 201.1 5001 20000 Rec[3] 50.81 55.55 1.348 8.686 34.64 195.4 5001 20000 Rec[4] 82.9 95.97 2.613 13.24 58.2 299.2 5001 20000 Rec[5] 1899.0 702.9 15.97 791.1 1806.0 3525.0 5001 20000 Rec[6] 1324.0 724.6 14.26 290.3 1198.0 3118.0 5001 20000 Rec[7] 235.6 256.7 4.897 37.13 167.1 864.6 5001 20000 Rec[8] 151.9 150.2 3.536 25.77 107.3 574.9 5001 20000 Rec[9] 36.3 50.48 1.14 5.94 23.25 149.2 5001 20000 Rec[10] 62.28 57.49 1.275 11.51 45.62 215.2 5001 20000 Rec[11] 38.49 39.78 0.8093 6.638 26.68 147.6 5001 20000 Rec[12] 46.56 43.5 1.03 8.34 33.96 163.5 5001 20000 Rec[13] 52.24 47.07 0.968 8.969 38.69 174.7 5001 20000 Rec[14] 85.9 73.44 1.503 15.38 65.37 287.2 5001 20000 Rec[15] 57.57 62.38 1.462 9.538 39.61 219.6 5001 20000 Rec[16] 25.54 36.42 1.0 3.626 15.92 112.0 5001 20000 Rec[17] 37.58 50.95 1.236 5.679 24.21 157.6 5001 20000 Rec[18] 159.0 147.9 3.07 27.62 118.1 544.1 5001 20000 Rec[19] 1089.0 533.0 8.641 279.7 1009.0 2366.0 5001 20000 Rec[20] 98.33 97.46 1.886 18.3 72.02 344.0 5001 20000 Rec[21] 79.99 81.46 1.851 14.58 57.37 292.1 5001 20000 Rec[22] 17.71 26.11 0.7147 2.487 10.55 77.49 5001 20000 Rec[23] 33.14 61.1 2.475 3.521 19.08 143.4 5001 20000 S 0.7135 0.1448 0.002962 0.4318 0.7146 0.9691 5001 20000 epsilon 0.3946 0.2236 0.004539 0.1346 0.3415 0.9689 5001 20000 exploit.this.year.1 0.3137 0.2316 0.01427 0.0682 0.2476 0.9607 5001 20000 m[1] 0.06944 0.05131 7.205E-4 0.01843 0.05615 0.2015 5001 20000 m[2] 0.07851 0.05607 7.735E-4 0.02156 0.06412 0.2226 5001 20000 m[3] 0.06083 0.04391 6.818E-4 0.01641 0.04943 0.1711 5001 20000 m[4] 0.08203 0.05847 8.615E-4 0.0223 0.06729 0.232 5001 20000 m[5] 0.07991 0.0556 7.614E-4 0.022 0.06629 0.2186 5001 20000 m[6] 0.03388 0.02459 3.385E-4 0.009543 0.02758 0.09602 5001 20000 m[7] 0.3998 0.2092 0.003043 0.1148 0.3601 0.9189 5001 20000 m[8] 0.7891 0.3493 0.006206 0.241 0.7437 1.588 5001 20000 m[9] 0.411 0.2155 0.003037 0.1146 0.3695 0.9426 5001 20000 m[10] 0.1458 0.09273 0.001282 0.03983 0.1235 0.3876 5001 20000 m[11] 0.09202 0.06338 8.893E-4 0.02453 0.07598 0.2562 5001 20000 m[12] 0.07644 0.05931 8.501E-4 0.01996 0.06153 0.2216 5001 20000 m[13] 0.1454 0.0984 0.001411 0.03828 0.1211 0.4002 5001 20000 m[14] 0.1309 0.08511 0.001051 0.03554 0.11 0.3564 5001 20000 m[15] 0.08146 0.05528 7.765E-4 0.02246 0.06773 0.2224 5001 20000 m[16] 0.09758 0.06316 8.661E-4 0.02716 0.08195 0.2636 5001 20000 m[17] 0.09616 0.06727 9.85E-4 0.02481 0.07919 0.2742 5001 20000 m[18] 0.1558 0.1003 0.001403 0.0425 0.1312 0.4156 5001 20000 m[19] 0.08275 0.05512 6.73E-4 0.02362 0.06912 0.2273 5001 20000 m[20] 0.03913 0.02663 3.614E-4 0.01097 0.03229 0.1104 5001 20000 m[21] 0.05555 0.0403 5.728E-4 0.01479 0.04496 0.1586 5001 20000 m[22] 0.07863 0.05712 8.573E-4 0.02041 0.06373 0.2276 5001 20000 m[23] 0.05834 0.04848 7.642E-4 0.01497 0.04595 0.1749 5001 20000 nu 0.7424 0.6545 0.02803 0.1473 0.5273 2.531 5001 20000 qI[1] 0.4134 0.1296 0.003439 0.2002 0.3983 0.7125 5001 20000 qI[2] 0.3807 0.1391 0.004454 0.153 0.3646 0.6998 5001 20000 qI[3] 0.4118 0.1776 0.006663 0.1354 0.3865 0.8331 5001 20000 qI[4] 0.4459 0.2057 0.008158 0.1379 0.4113 0.9115 5001 20000 qI[5] 0.4585 0.2107 0.007957 0.1488 0.4199 0.9289 5001 20000 qI[6] 0.6328 0.1532 0.004075 0.3696 0.6195 0.9501 5001 20000 qI[7] 0.5902 0.1886 0.004707 0.2752 0.5726 0.9578 5001 20000 qI[8] 0.3702 0.1297 0.003414 0.1765 0.3498 0.688 5001 20000 qI[9] 0.3563 0.1294 0.003974 0.1566 0.3385 0.6665 5001 20000 qI[10] 0.3127 0.1248 0.004462 0.1327 0.2911 0.6178 5001 20000 qI[11] 0.3685 0.1489 0.005656 0.1479 0.3443 0.729 5001 20000 qI[12] 0.2907 0.1292 0.005258 0.1073 0.2692 0.6061 5001 20000 qI[13] 0.4298 0.1958 0.00815 0.1397 0.3972 0.8913 5001 20000 qI[14] 0.4157 0.1907 0.007804 0.1377 0.3829 0.8698 5001 20000 qI[15] 0.4011 0.1792 0.0068 0.1321 0.3728 0.8358 5001 20000 qI[16] 0.3537 0.1656 0.006302 0.1172 0.3234 0.7614 5001 20000 qI[17] 0.2838 0.1437 0.005385 0.09416 0.2535 0.6554 5001 20000 qI[18] 0.2809 0.139 0.004682 0.09876 0.2522 0.6444 5001 20000 qI[19] 0.6768 0.1868 0.004652 0.3158 0.6841 0.98 5001 20000 qI[20] 0.6006 0.152 0.003635 0.3352 0.5912 0.924 5001 20000 qI[21] 0.4961 0.1515 0.005284 0.2439 0.4832 0.8297 5001 20000 qI[22] 0.3804 0.1575 0.007922 0.1398 0.3594 0.7376 5001 20000 qI[23] 0.2714 0.1967 0.01192 0.0569 0.2154 0.8256 5001 20000 sigma 0.1755 0.09363 0.002188 0.06366 0.1534 0.4169 5001 20000 tau 0.05564 0.01801 1.695E-4 0.03006 0.05251 0.09999 5001 20000 varepsilon 0.05557 0.01811 1.604E-4 0.03004 0.05229 0.1001 5001 20000